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$ETH 1874, Hash Donation Fund stops reducing IBIT holdings, with a portfolio value of $100 million. If this news had come out six months ago, it would have at least triggered a 5% bullish candle. Now? ETH hasn't even had a decent rebound, continuing to drift downwards; the market is already numb. SAR=1891.9 is right at the 24-hour high, EMA21=1882.22, EMA55=1886.7, all above the price. BTC is struggling at 63000, ETH is struggling at 1870, no one should mock the other. RSI6=31.46, close to oversold, K=52, D=60, J=34, a bearish death cross downward, bulls have no strength to resist. Honestly, I interpret the Hash Fund stopping its reduction as institutions starting to think this price is about right and not wanting to sell more. But "not selling" and "starting to buy" are still worlds apart. For the market to truly reverse, we need to see incremental capital entering. Comment below: Is the Hash Fund stopping reductions a bottom signal, or just the start of a slow bear market? I'm still holding a long position above 1850, ready to buy when it hits, with a stop loss at 1820. If you think it will fall further, don't just talk—show your trades and let me see who opened short positions below 1820. 🔥

$BTC rainbow chart has reached the special discount sale area The largest bubble area above is priced near $1,000,000 per coin Judging from this chart alone, starting a dollar-cost averaging strategy would be extremely cost-effective 💪💪

CORE (Core DAO) Complete Risk List I. Team and Governance Risks (Fundamental Biggest Hidden Danger) 1. Anonymous Core Team The founding team has not disclosed real-name information, no offline entity, no compliant corporate entity. If the team goes missing or abandons development, holders have no channel for rights protection. ​ 2. Highly Concentrated Token Holdings Early contributors, foundation, and large miners hold a large amount of tokens; concentrated selling by large holders can easily trigger a crash. Community governance power is controlled by whales, ordinary retail investors cannot influence major decisions. ​ 3. Uncertainty of Roadmap Changes The project party can unilaterally adjust staking rules, reward mechanisms, and burn rules, posing risks of policy changes impacting token price. II. Long-term Selling Pressure Risk of Token Economics (Core Long-term Negative) 1. Ultra-long Cycle Continuous Release Total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, block mining reward release cycle lasts up to 81 years, continuously adding new tokens into the market. Treasury and contributor shares unlock linearly over the long term, creating permanent continuous selling pressure. ​ 2. Weak Value Capture Ability Currently, on-chain fee income is extremely low, ecosystem revenue is insufficient to support token value. BTC staking rewards are paid in CORE tokens; many users sell rewards immediately, forming natural selling pressure. ​ 3. Lack of Strong Support Mechanism No fixed buyback or large-scale burn commitments; in bull markets, price rises rely on narrative, while in bear markets it easily falls into a death spiral of "staking mining → selling tokens → price decline → reduced staking attractiveness." III. Inherent Technical Architecture Risks (Satoshi Plus Consensus Controversy) 1. Relay Node Trust Assumption (Industry's Biggest Controversy) CORE promotes BTC staying on Bitcoin mainnet, non-custodial staking, but staking status and reward settlement rely on relay nodes reporting data to the CORE chain. If relay node clusters act maliciously, report incorrect data, or experience centralized downtime, BTC staking rights will be affected; compared to Stacks' native architecture, this adds an extra layer of trust risk. ​ 2. Smart Contract Security Risks EVM-compatible public chain, DeFi contracts and staking contracts in the ecosystem may have vulnerabilities and be subject to hacker attacks; if theft occurs, losses cannot be recovered. ​ 3. Doubts About Network Decentralization Validator and relay node concentration is relatively high, posing potential risks of a few nodes colluding to affect network operation. IV. Competition Risk in the BTCFi Track (Brutal Internal Competition) Multiple routes in the BTCFi track continuously divert funds: - Stacks: Native Bitcoin L2, rewards paid directly in BTC, no relay controversy; ​ - Bitlayer, Merlin: ZK Bitcoin L2, narrative heat continues to rise; ​ - Babylon: Lightweight BTC staking protocol, favored by institutional funds. ✅ Key Conclusion: BTCFi track dividends are not exclusive to CORE. If ecosystem landing speed lags competitors, funds will continuously outflow, and long-term valuation will remain under pressure. V. Ecosystem and Fundamental Risks 1. Narrative Over Delivery, Ecosystem is Bearish Many on-chain DApps survive by mining incentives, lacking real users and real lending demand; no phenomenon-level applications support TVL. ​ 2. BTC Staking Scale Growth Below Expectations Many Bitcoin native community minimalists resist BTCFi products, making it difficult to attract a large number of long-term BTC holders to participate in staking. ​ 3. Uncertainty in Promoting lstBTC Liquid Staking Products lstBTC is CORE's core tool to connect institutional funds; if institutional cooperation is slow to materialize, mid-to-long-term growth logic will be impaired. VI. Exchange & Liquidity Risks (Direct Short-term Trading Impact) 1. Continuous Rumors of Exchange Delisting (KuCoin, etc.) Small and medium exchanges are successively evaluating delisting risks; if multiple exchanges delist simultaneously, liquidity will rapidly dry up, causing deep dumps and huge slippage, making it difficult to sell. ​ 2. Market Cap Belongs to Small and Mid-cap Tokens, Liquidity is Fragile During extreme market conditions, order book depth is insufficient, causing large price fluctuations in short time; easily manipulated by funds. VII. Global Regulatory Risks (Unpredictable Black Swan) 1. Multiple countries continuously tighten regulations, increasingly classifying crypto tokens as unregistered securities; ​ 2. If regulations impose restrictions on BTC staking and BTCFi products, core business will be directly hit; ​ 3. Domestic Legal Risks: Participation in virtual currency trading is not legally protected domestically; funds lost or scammed cannot be legally defended.

Lately, I've been watching the market closely and noticed something quite contradictory: ETF has been making large purchases for several consecutive days, yet $BTC is stuck like it's welded down, hovering stubbornly around 63,000 without moving an inch. Money is clearly flowing in, but the price just won't budge; in the past, it would have already surged. At first, I didn't understand it either, but after some careful thought, I realized institutions are playing this quite slyly. On one hand, they're accumulating big bags in the spot ETF, while on the other, they're shorting CME futures as a hedge. To put it plainly, this isn't a faith-based position build-up; it's neutral arbitrage. They buy as much spot as they short in futures, locking both ends, so the price is naturally suppressed tightly. The gas pedal is floored, but the brakes are welded on—no wonder the car won't move. As for the "head and shoulders" pattern some in the market are shouting about, I think it's just people scaring themselves. A true head and shoulders requires the right shoulder to have shrinking volume, but the current volume is quite even, so it doesn't hold. This pattern looks more like a converging triangle, which will likely end with a downward fake breakout, wiping out all long stop losses near 61,000, then reversing sharply in a V-shaped recovery. That kind of drop looks scary but is actually a golden pit, not a bear market switch. The $ETH to BTC exchange rate has recently risen a bit, but don't rush to say "Ethereum is strengthening." Simply put, it's not ETH getting stronger; it's BTC being crushed by the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. ETH has already fallen from its highs to around 1800 and can't fall much further—this is a passive appearance of strength. Once BTC truly rebounds, this exchange rate will immediately reverse. So the current strategy can be summed up in four words: hold your position. Before September, the direction won't emerge on its own. To break the deadlock, we just need to wait for a few things: easing hints on interest rates, regulatory bills passing, or a fake breakdown that cleans out panic selling. Until then, itchy-handed brothers, remember one thing—don't short. Shorting at this level earns you peanuts and stresses you out for nothing. Short-term pros can do as they please; I'll just keep waiting. #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到

$ETH with this trend, the bears don't even bother pretending anymore, the rebound feels like it's borrowed, taking one step forward and three steps back. Adding positions? That's just handing chips to the market makers. Don't reason with the chart, a rebound is a short opportunity, place your stop loss just above the high, and watch the show.😏

The happiest moment of the day has arrived again Adding to my $CORE position Even if it's the end of the world, I will keep adding Even if the universe is destroyed, I will keep adding I went heavy today, directly pulling the cost basis down to $0.68 Feels so good In a great mood No matter what others say, I do my own thing This post is just a record of my own actions No signal or recommendation intended Many people say I'm sent by the project team to promote it You’re overthinking, I’m just a nobody retail trader If you think CORE will go to zero, you can short or sell off Everyone has their own path to follow Respect others' fate, don’t discourage anyone

Morning of 2026-08-17 (UTC+8), BTC/USDT is grinding in an extremely narrow range of $62,900–63,100, OKX snapshot around 62,950, 24h high/low 62,900 / 63,150, weekly drop about 2.8%, similar to DOGE and ETH earlier — low volatility sideways, struggling with itself, waiting for a breakout, characterized as a neutral to slightly bearish technical box. Key short-term price levels (intraday) - Near-term resistance: 63,080 (upper edge of intraday volume-dense zone / bears' defense) → 63,500 (previously lost key level) → 64,500–65,000 (strong resistance from options Call accumulation, a rebound only if surpassed) - Near-term support: 62,994 (lower edge of volume-dense zone) → 62,950 (moving average + VWAP intersection, break signals short-term bearish) → 62,000–62,500 (strong support zone, break below 62,000 targets 60,500–60,000) - Bull-bear dividing line: round number 63,000, current price hugging it, before pivot breaks, treat as a micro box 62,950–63,080 for ultra-short trades Short-term rhythm judgment - Trend: oscillating slightly weak. 30-day volatility dropped to 5.6%, a historical low, Bollinger Bands narrowing; medium-term bearish (weekly candle bearish, recent ETF net outflows, Put/Call ratio 1.22 indicating defensive sentiment), but selling pressure above 62,800 lacks volume, so no one-sided decline. - Volume: Asian session volume shrinks, 15m occasional buy ratio over 85% but not sustained; spot ETFs last week first saw inflows then turned cautious/slight outflows, institutions not supporting, no volume to push above 63,500. - Correlation: DOGE and ETH are sideways, BTC is the main valve. Before Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole 8/27–29, low probability of major moves by big players, typical "stalemate before breakout." Three short-term scenarios (framework, not trade calls) - Micro box ultra-short: stabilize between 62,950–62,994 without breaking, 15m candle wick, light long position trial, stop loss below 62,900, target 63,080 → 63,500; 63,080–63,150 stagnation with volume contraction try short, stop loss above 63,200, target back to 62,994. - Breakdown follow short: 1h candle body breaks 62,950 → rebound fails → follow short, target 62,500 → 62,000, no adding bottom buy below 62,000, wait for 60,500–60,000. - Breakout follow long: only if volume surges and price holds above 63,500 with a successful retest, then target 64,500 → 65,000; only after holding above 65,000 steadily consider 66,000–68,000; otherwise, all rebounds treated as "upper edge of the box." Risk control points - Leverage within 3x, BTC low volatility + thin liquidity, stop-loss hunting with spikes is more damaging than one-sided moves, not suitable for heavy overnight positions today. - No definition of strength until surpassing 63,500, only define as "sub-oscillations within the large box 62,000–64,500." - Position size less than half usual, conditional orders preferred over market chasing, better to miss than to err; before breakout windows (FOMC/Jackson Hole), big players often shake out first then choose direction.

The liquidity in the crypto market is ridiculously poor right now. Even the 5-minute candlesticks can show several consecutive zero trades. To put it bluntly, there hasn't been a single trade in half an hour. The market is grinding with no fluctuations at all; at this level of inactivity, it wouldn't feel out of place if the market just closed for the weekend. What we really need now is a wave of impactful sharp rises and falls to bring back the market's heat. The only recent event that brought some liveliness to the market was the $BTC movement from 82,000 down to 59,000. At least there was clear volatility and trading opportunities. Unlike now, which is completely stagnant.

BTC's surge and subsequent pullback is more alarming than the drop itself: there are active sellers above BTC briefly surged rapidly to $63,363 in the early morning, but what truly deserves attention is not this surge, but the fact that the price barely held at the high level before quickly falling back to around $63,000. From the 15-minute structure perspective, this looks more like a probe for liquidity above rather than a trend breakout. There are several details on the chart worth noting: First, the $63,250–$63,360 range has formed a clear short-term selling pressure zone. After breaking above the upper Bollinger Band, the price was quickly pushed back, indicating that although there is chasing buying, the support above is insufficient. Now the price has fallen back below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and the short-term initiative has shifted back to the bears. Second, $63,000 is becoming the real battleground between bulls and bears. Currently, the lower Bollinger Band is around $63,015, and short-term support on the chart is also concentrated near $63,030. If this level can hold, this drop can still be understood as a pullback after a surge; but if it breaks down with volume, the previous low of $62,937 is likely to come back into market focus. Third, more important than technical patterns is the capital flow. This week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $389 million, after the market experienced a clear capital inflow at the beginning of August. In other words, ETF funds have not formed a sustained one-way buying trend but are rapidly switching between inflows and outflows. The latest public data also shows that as of August 14, BTC ETF still recorded a single-day net outflow of about $57.63 million. (CoinGape) This is why I am currently reluctant to define this as a "bottom-fishing position" simply because the KDJ indicator has entered a low level. Oversold only means a rapid drop; it does not mean selling pressure has ended. What I am more focused on is how the price responds next to $63,000: If $63,000 holds and the price recovers back to $63,140–$63,250, this drop may just be washing out chasing buyers, and BTC still has a chance to retest $63,360. But if $63,000 fails to hold and volume expands again, then this early morning surge is very likely to have turned from a "breakout attempt" into a typical liquidity sweep designed to trap bulls, and at that time, $62,940 or even lower levels will be the real places to watch for buying interest. BTC currently does have buying interest, but it is not strong enough to stabilize the price after the breakout. This distinction is very important. In trading, the most dangerous thing is often not the drop itself, but mistaking a brief breakout for a trend reversal. Do you think $63,000 can hold this time, or has the early morning $63,363 already completed a short-term bull trap? :::$BTC

📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (August 17) According to liquidation data, the whale traders on ETH have completed a unilateral long liquidation from short to long cycles, with shorts being completely crushed and longs monopolizing almost all liquidation shares, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $9.62 million. Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $7.4639 million $6.5591 million $904,800 4 hours $7.9 million $6.5874 million $1.3126 million 12 hours $9.0084 million $6.7329 million $2.2755 million 24 hours $9.628 million $7.2386 million $2.3893 million From the $ETH liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, long liquidations crushed shorts, with longs being 7.25 times the shorts; the long liquidation event unfolded with nuclear-level intensity, totaling $7.4639 million—strong short-cycle control by longs; in 4 hours, longs continued to crush shorts, with longs 5 times the shorts, the intensity of long liquidation slightly weakened but remained strong, with liquidation rising from $7.46 million to $7.9 million, longs kept pushing; at 12 hours, longs still dominated, being 2.96 times the shorts, long liquidation momentum continued to weaken, with a moderate rise to $9 million—longs still controlling but losing steam; at 24 hours, longs continued to crush shorts, with long liquidations at $7.2386 million versus shorts at $2.3893 million, longs 3 times the shorts, cumulative liquidations exceeded $9.62 million—the whale traders on ETH completed a perfect path of "full-force short-cycle long liquidation → sustained long-cycle harvesting," shorts were crushed throughout, and longs almost monopolized all liquidation shares. This is a textbook-level unilateral long liquidation event. But crucially, the long-to-short crushing ratio shrank from 7.25 times at 1 hour to 3 times at 24 hours, indicating the long liquidation energy is rapidly depleting, longs and shorts are returning to balance, and the direction could reverse at any time. Everyone should manage their positions carefully to avoid being liquidated back and forth. ⚠️ Risk Warning: Long liquidations on ETH across all cycles continue to crush shorts with highly consistent direction, but the ratio narrows from 7.25 times at 1H to 3 times at 24H, showing rapid exhaustion of long liquidation momentum and a very high risk of direction reversal; 12-hour and 24-hour liquidations account for 97% of the total daily volume, indicating extreme concentration and market volatility. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; do not blindly bottom-fish and strictly control positions while waiting for clear direction. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 17 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: macro signals are splitting, and the market is undergoing a "data conflict" pricing reconstruction—consumption is retreating, earnings are surging, and leverage is gambling. 📉 Consumption Momentum Weakens: No hope for rate cuts, no courage for hikes US consumption continues to show cooling signals. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, the largest drop in 14 months, far below the expected 0.1% growth; core retail sales also dropped 0.6%, missing expectations. The rapid decline in consumption momentum echoes the unexpected negative nonfarm payrolls in July—the "double decline" in labor market and consumer spending is reinforcing each other. But inflation stickiness still locks policy space. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, core CPI 2.5%; PPI fell to 4.7% YoY, but service costs hit the largest annual increase, so inflation cooling is not a straight line down. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to about 33%, sharply contrasting with the 12% low after June CPI release—the market's inflation concerns have never truly faded. No action is not because it's enough, but because there's no courage to act. 📈 S&P Earnings Beat Expectations: Why only target 7894 points? US Q2 earnings season delivered impressive results. S&P 500 constituent earnings grew 31% YoY in Q2, far exceeding early-year expectations; overall earnings beat expectations by 7.4%, with over 90% of reporting companies showing earnings growth. But Wall Street strategists have raised the year-end S&P 500 target to 7894 points—only about 1% upside from the current all-time high. Full-year earnings growth expectations have been raised from 15% to 27%, but valuation expansion space is fully priced in. For the index to reach new highs, it requires continuous "outperformance" rather than steady "meeting expectations." 📊 ETF Buying Reversal: BTC Leverage Positions Reaccumulate Bitcoin ETF fund flows have fluctuated sharply. After a net inflow of about $1.1 billion from August 3 to 7, there was a net outflow of about $329 million from August 10 to 14. More noteworthy is leverage—CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin futures open interest surged by $2 billion in the second week of August. If Bitcoin falls below $58,500, a large amount of leveraged positions may trigger forced liquidations. Buying reversal and leverage buildup are signs of intensified long-short battles. 💎 Summary Consumption is retreating, earnings are surging, leverage is gambling—weak consumption and inflation stickiness create macro "stagflation" troubles; earnings beating expectations and narrow target price space create valuation contradictions; buying reversal and leverage rebuilding create tension in the crypto market. No hope for rate cuts, no courage for hikes, earnings rising, leverage building—the market is pricing the second half of 2026 in the most divided way. #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升